Wednesday, June 27, 2007


The CAESAR, POLO, and ESAU Papers
Cold War Era Hard Target Analysis of Soviet and Chinese Policy and Decision Making, 1953-1973
This collection of declassified analytic monographs and reference aids, designated within the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Directorate of Intelligence (DI) as the CAESAR, ESAU, and POLO series, highlights the CIA's efforts from the 1950s through the mid-1970s to pursue in-depth research on Soviet and Chinese internal politics and Sino-Soviet relations. The documents reflect the views of seasoned analysts who had followed closely their special areas of research and whose views were shaped in often heated debate. Continuing public interest in the series, as reflected in numerous requests through Freedom of Information and Executive Order channels, led CIA's Office of Information Management Services (IMS) to conduct a search of Directorate of Intelligence record systems for documents in this series and then undertake a declassification review of all the documents we located. The 147 documents in this collection, amounting to over 11,000 pages of analysis, were written between 1953 and 1973. The collection includes a large number of newly declassified monographs as well as some studies that have been previously declassified and released to individual requesters. The continuing sensitivity of some documents in the series required that they be withheld from declassification.
CAESAR Documents
Document Title
1."The Doctors' Plot" 15-Jul-53
2. Death of Stalin 16-Jul-53
3. Germany 16-Jul-53
4. The Reversal of the Doctors' Plot and Its Immediate Aftermath 17-Jul-53
5. Melinkov's Removal in the Ukraine 17-Jul-53
6. The Zhdanov-Malenkov Relationship 29-Jul-53
7. The Balance of Power 5-Aug-53
8. Indecision and Stress 21-Aug-53
9. Politics and the Soviet Army: Developments Since October 1952 Relating to the Political Status of the Soviet Armed Forces 12-Mar-54
10. Purge of L.P. Beria 17-Apr-54
11. Summarization of Reports Preceding Beria Purge 17-Aug-54
12. Resignation of Malenkov 12-Sep-55
13. Recent Developments in Political Status of Soviet Armed Forces 20-Sep-55
14. Soviet Views on Capitalism 30-Jan-56
15. The Suez Crisis - A Test for the USSR's Middle Eastern Policy 3-Jan-57
16. Factionalism in the Hungarian Workers (Communist) Party 28-Jan-57
17. Soviet Economic Policy: December 1956 - May 1957 8-Jul-57
18. Differences in Temperament Among Soviet Leaders as Shown by Their Approach to Policy Issues 1945-1957 30-Oct-57
19. From the July Plenum (1955) to the 20th Party Congress - Antecedents and Aftermath of Malenkov's Resignation From the Premiership 12-Mar-58
20. From the July Plenum (1955) to the 20th Party Congress - Antecedents and Aftermath of Malenkov's Resignation From the Premiership 19-Jun-58
21. The Tie That Binds - Soviet Intrabloc Relations Feb 1956 to Dec 1957 29-Jul-58
22. The Failure of the Soviet-Yugoslav Rapprochement 3-Nov-58
23. Party-Military Relations in the USSR and the Fall of Marshal Zhukov 8-Jun-59
24. The Soviet Writer and Soviet Cultural Policy 15-Sep-59
25. The Soviet History of World War II 28-Oct-59
26. Khrushchev on Nuclear Strategy 19-Jan-60
27. The Succession to Khrushchev 4-Mar-60
28. Soviet Policy Toward the Underdeveloped Countries 28-Apr-61
29. Soviet Military Thought on Future War 3-Apr-62
30. Khrushchev and the Anti-Party Group 27-Apr-62
31. Soviet Strategic Doctrine for the Start of War 3-Jul-62
32. Soviet Military Strategy and the Chinese Problem 26-Apr-63
33. Khrushchev's Role in the Current Controversy Over Soviet Defense Policy 17-Jun-63
34. Unorthodox Ideas in the USSR 27-Jun-63
35. Trends in Soviet Thought on Limited Warfare 16-Dec-63
36. The Soviet Missile Base Venture in Cuba 17-Feb-64
37. The Soviet Strategic Interest in Limited Disarmament 6-Mar-64
38. The Higher Military Council of the USSR 20-Jul-64
39. The Military and the Succession Problem in the USSR 5-Nov-64
40. Warsaw Pact Military Strategy: A Compromise in Soviet Strategic Thinking 7-Jun-65
41. The New Soviet Constitution and the Party-State Issue In CPSU Politics, 1956-1966 21-Jul-66
42. Strains in Soviet - East German Relations: 1962-1967 24-Feb-67
43. Policy and Politics in CPSU Politburo: October 1964 to September 1967 31-Aug-67
44. The Stalin Issue and the Soviet Leadership Struggle 5-Jul-68
45. Annex: The Stalin Issue and the Soviet Leadership Struggle 17-Jul-68
46. Politics in the Soviet Politburo and the Czech Crisis 28-Oct-68
47. Institute for the USA: The Kremlin's New Approach to America Watching 7-Oct-69
48. Leonid Brezhnev: The Man and His Power 5-Dec-69
49. Brezhnev's Struggle for Dominance: Annex to Leonid Brezhnev: The Man and His Power 12-Dec-69
50. Soviet Policy and the 1967 Arab-Israeli War 16-Mar-70
51. Andrey Kirilenko and the Soviet Political Succession 15-Mar-71
52. Portrait of a Neo-Stalinist: Annex to CAESAR XXXIX Andrey Kirilenko and the Soviet Political Succession Jun-71
53. The Politburo and Soviet Decision-Making 1-Apr-72
POLO Documents
Document Title
1. Mao Tse-Tung and Historical Materialism 10-Apr-61
2. Mao Tse-Tung and Historical Materialism II. The State Form 29-Jun-61
3. Mao Tse-Tung and Historical Materialism IV. The "Transition to Socialism" 9-Oct-61
4. Mao Tse-Tung and Historical Materialism III. "Contradictions" in a "Socialist" Society 20-Oct-61
5. The Chinese Communist Leadership, 1958-1961 28-Nov-61
6. The Decline of Mao Tse-Tung 9-Apr-62
7. The Sino-Indian Border Dispute Section 1: 1950-59 2-Mar-63
8. The Sino-Indian Border Dispute Section 2: 1959-61 19-Aug-63
9. The Sino-Indian Border Dispute Section 3: 1961-62 5-May-64
10. Communist China's Domestic Crisis: The Road to 1964 31-Jul-64
11. The Sino-Vietnamese Effort to Limit American Actions in the Vietnam War 9-Jun-65
12. Political Problems in Communist China 19-Jul-65
13. Mao's "Cultural Revolution": Its Leadership, Its Strategy, Its Instruments, and Its Casualties 18-Feb-67
14. Mao's "Cultural Revolution": Origin and Development 6-Oct-67
15. The P.L.A. and the "Cultural Revolution" 28-Oct-67
16. Ten Years of Chinese Communist Foreign Policy Section I: Policy Toward the US and the Diplomatic Isolation of Taipei
17. Ten Years of Chinese Communist Foreign Policy South and Southeast Asia 4-Apr-68
18. Ten Years of Chinese Communist Foreign Policy Section II: South and Southeast Asia 9-Apr-68
19. Mao's "Cultural Revolution" in 1967: The Struggle to "Seize Power" 24-May-68
20. Red Guard and Revolutionary Rebel Organizations in Communist China 28-May-68
21. Mao's Red Guard Diplomacy: 1967 21-Jun-68
22. Mao's "Cultural Revolution" III. The Purge of the P.L.A. and the Stardom of Madame Mao
23. Factionalism in the Central Committee: Mao's Opposition Since 1949 19-Sep-68
24. The Role of the Red Guards and Revolutionary Rebels in Mao's Cultural Revolution Nov-68
25. The Role of the Red Guards and Revolutionary Rebels in Mao's Cultural Revolution Dec-68
26. The Cultural Revolution and Education in Communist China 23-May-69
27. The Cultural Revolution and the Ninth Party Congress 1-Oct-69
28. Communist China: The Political Security Apparatus II. Destruction and Reconstruction, 1965-1969 28-Nov-69
29. Lin Piao and the Great Helmsman 21-Jan-70
30. The Cultural Revolution and the New Political System in China 30-Oct-70
31. Lin Piao and the Structure of Power Dec-70
32. The Failure of Maoist Ideology in Foreign Policy Nov-71
33. The International Liaison Department of the Chinese Communist Party Dec-71
34. Peking-Taipei Contacts: The Question of a Possible "Chinese Solution" Dec-71
35. Research Aid - Missing Chinese Military Leaders Aug-72
36. Policy Issues in the Purge of Lin Piao Nov-72
37. Peking's Support of Insurgencies in Southeast Asia Apr-73
38. China's Regional and Provincial Leaders: The Purge of the Military, the Rise of Old Party Cadres Jul-73
ESAU Documents
Document Title
1. Origins of the Chinese "Commune" Program 17-Jul-59
2. The Commune: Conception and Experimentation, Spring 1958
3. The Soviet Attitude Toward "Communes" 12-Jun-59
4. Soviet Positions on the "Transition to Communism" - Prior to the Chinese Commune Program 28-Aug-59
5. The Commune: Revelation and Initial Organization, Summer 1958 4-Sep-59
6. Indications of Soviet Awareness of Chinese Plans for the Communes, Spring-Summer 1958 16-Oct-59
7. The Chinese Communist Impact on East Germany 15-Apr-60
8. The Commune, The "Great Leap Forward," and Sino-Soviet Relations (August-December 1958) 15-Jun-60
9. Mao Tse-Tung on Strategy, 1926-1957 (The Background of the Sino-Soviet Dispute of 1957-1960) 8-Aug-60
10. The Sino-Soviet Dispute on World Communist Strategy (Autumn 1957-Autumn 1959) 23-Sep-60
11. The Sino-Soviet Dispute on World Communist Strategy (Its Development from Autumn 1959 to Summer 1960) 23-Jan-61
12. The Sino-Soviet Dispute (June 1960 to November 1960) 20-Feb-61
13. The Sino-Soviet Dispute (The 6 December Declaration, and Soviet and Chinese Presentations of It) 17-Mar-61
14. Sino-Soviet Competition in North Korea 5-Apr-61
15. The Indian Communist Party and Sino-Soviet Dispute 7-Feb-62
16. The New Stage of the Sino-Soviet Dispute (October 1961-January 1962) 26-Feb-62
17. North Vietnam and Sino-Soviet Relations 4-Mar-62
18. Summary -"Implications of the Sino-Soviet Dispute for US Policy" 29-Mar-62
19. Soviet-Albanian Relations, 1940-1960 22-Jun-62
20. The State of Sino-Soviet Relations at the New Year 7-Jan-63
21. The North Vietnamese Party and the "New Situation" in South Vietnam 10-Jul-63
22. The Sino-Soviet Struggle in Cuba and the Latin American Communist Movement 1-Nov-63
23. The Japanese Communist Party 1955-1963 20-Mar-64
24. The Sino-Soviet Conflict in the Fronts - September 1962-December 1963 12-Jun-64
25. Prince Sihanouk and the New Order in Southeast Asia
26. The Showdown on Soviet Authority in the "Movement" 8-Feb-65
27. The 1965 Sino-Soviet-Vietnamese Controversy Over Soviet Military Aid to North Vietnam 20-Dec-65
28. Zanzibar: The Hundred Days' Revolution 21-Feb-66
29. The Positions of Hanoi, Peking, and Moscow on the Issue of Vietnam Negotiations: 1962 to 1966 31-Oct-66
30. Asian Communist Employment of Negotiations as a Political Tactic Nov-66
31. The Disintegration of Japanese Communist Relations with Peking 28-Dec-66
32. The Sino-Soviet Dispute Within the Communist Movement in Latin America 15-Jun-67
33. The Sino-Soviet Struggle in the World Communist Movement Since Khrushchev's Fall (Part 1) Sep-67
34. The Sino-Soviet Struggle in the World Communist Movement Since Khrushchev's Fall (Part 2) Sep-67
35. The Sino-Soviet Struggle in the World Communist Movement Since Khrushchev's Fall (Part 3) Sep-67
36. The Attitudes of North Vietnamese Leaders Toward Fighting and Negotiating 25-Mar-68
37. The Sino-Soviet Dispute on Aid to North Vietnam(1965-1968) 30-Sep-68
38. Annex: The Sino-Soviet Dispute on Aid to North Vietnam (1965-1968) 25-Nov-68
39. Kim Il-Sung's New Military Adventurism 26-Nov-68
40. Indonesia-1965, The Coup that Backfired Dec-68
41. The Struggle in the Polish Leadership and the Revolt of the Apparat 5-Sep-69
42. The Committed Church and Change in Latin America 10-Sep-69
43. Czechoslovakia: The Problem of Soviet Control 16-Jan-70
44. The Evolution of Soviet Policy in Sino-Soviet Border Dispute 28-Apr-70
45. The Prussian Heresy: Ulbricht's Evolving System 29-Jun-70
46. Yugoslavia: The Outworn Structure 20-Nov-70
47. Fedayeen - "Men of Sacrifice" Dec-70
48. The Growth of the Soviet Commitment in the Middle East Jan-71
49. The Fedayeen (Annex to ESAU XLVII: Fedayeen - "Men of Sacrifice") Jan-71
50. Soviet Thinking about the Danger of Sino-U.S. Rapprochement Feb-71
51. The Polish Question: East Germany Jul-71
52. Peking and the Burmese Communists: The Perils and Profits of Insurgency Jul-71
53. Communism and Cambodia Feb-72
54. Communism and Cambodia May-72
55. "Finlandization" In Action: Helsinki's Experience With Moscow Aug-72
56. Soviet Expectations of a European Security Conference Oct-72